Charles Nenner Updated Forecast

Charles Nenner was interviewed by John Thomas (Mad Hedge Fund Trader) and he updated some of his predictions.

• S&P hit his downside target of 1133 and it has another 1.5 weeks until it bottoms – basically he sees a summer rally and he put money into stocks like INTC, AAPL, CAT, GS – this week on weakness he will add AMZN, AMR
• he expects the next down leg to start in the autumn and the correction will be longer and deeper than the current correction – he recommends going to the short side but he didn’t give a downside target
• he sees a big bounce in Germany, Brazil (EWZ) is one of his favorite markets although he still doesn’t think that emerging markets as a whole are a place to be for the next few months and that includes China (FXI) – he prefers the U.S. and Germany
• favorite currency is the Australian dollar – hasn’t bought it yet because cycles haven’t bottomed yet and he thinks it’s a great currency to stay in for the long term because the rates are high
• The Euro hit his downside target of $1.18 and he doesn’t have any strong opinions about the Euro in the near term
• Nenner made a previous prediction that the U.S. ten year bond yield would hit near 3% from 4%. Bonds will trade in a range near 3% until the end of the year. The current yield is 3.18% on the ten year so his previous target has already been hit
• copper hit his downside target but he doesn’t think that we’re finished on the downside
• Freeport (FCX) looks like it is bottoming and if it closes above $72 there could be a rally for the next five months

Some of Nenner’s more interesting ideas were the commodities and stocks that he was bearish about including:

• crude oil is not very promising, could bounce for another week but he thinks it will under-perform for the rest of the year
• he’s long natural gas for a trade but he has a downside target of natural gas is $1.70
• after the summer, we’ll start a multi-year bull market in agricultural commodities like soy beans – that is a long term trade as he expects it to underperform for the rest of the year
• he’s cautious about gold in short term  – he doesn’t want to be long until mid-July – he sees a $2,500 or so in the next few years
• he thinks silver will do better than gold – he wants to buy if there is weakness into July

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