Stan Druckenmiller is Bearish On the Markets

by admin on September 11, 2013

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Stan Druckenmiller gave a rare interview today where he discussed entitlements, the new Fed Chairman and his overall investing strategy.

If you want to skip the entitlement issue fast forward to the 15 minute mark of the video below.

It seems that Druckenmiller is cautious about the overall investing environment. He said he has “the smallest positions” that he can remember.

Druckenmiller also believes that the next Fed Chairman is a “big deal” since the markets are being “artificially subsidized by money printing.” Thus, if a more a hawkish Fed chairman is appointed it could have huge implications for all asset prices. If the Fed is in fact going to exit QE, it is clear that it is not going to be an easy transition as the market turmoil in June showed.

He also talked about how most hedge fund managers do not deserve 2&20 as there are far too many hedge fund managers that cannot achieve the outsized returns of years passed.

Druckenmiller said that he is still long some Japanese equities, short some yen and is no longer as bearish on the Aussie dollar. However, he does not have any huge positions as he feels that there is too much uncertainty to make a big bet.

Chanos Now Short Caterpillar

by admin on July 17, 2013

Jim Chanos revealed at the Delivering Alpha conference that he is now short Caterpillar (CAT).

Chanos feels that Caterpillar will suffer due to it’s heavy exposure to the mining industry. Bulls expect that the cap x will only decline by 10% to 15% per year but Chanos feel that cap x could go back to 2005 levels which would be a fifth of what is currently spent.

Chanos also feels that Caterpillar is a derivative position against the slowdown in Chinese construction. As China consumes less commodities, fewer commodities will be mined and that will cause revenue deceleration at Caterpillar.

Chanos noted that:

  • 30% of its revenues tied to global mining capital expenditures
  • 50% of its operating profit tied to global mining capital expenditures

Investing After a Crash

June 29, 2013

One of the oft repeated tenets of investing is to buy assets at a significant discount. Most investors cite the old Rothschild adage to “buy when there is blood in the streets.”  Other successful investors have found that if you buy real assets that are down 80% or more there is a high probability of […]

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Kyle Bass Presentation

March 12, 2013

Nobody is more eloquent talking about the debt problems than Kyle Bass. Here is a presentation entitled: Myron Scholes Global Markets Forum: The Coming Crisis in Japan – Kyle Bass     

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Charles Nenner Predicts Dow 5000

March 6, 2013

Charles Nenner was interviewed by both CNBC and Bloomberg and he proclaimed that the Dow would hit 5000 by 2017-2018.     Nenner has been out of the market since the S&P hit 1505. He does not see much upside remaining although he thinks it is too early to start shorting the market. I’ve followed […]

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Felix Zulauf’s Updated View For 2013

February 25, 2013

Felix Zulauf gave a rare interview with Eric King last week. Zulauf thinks that the market can continue to rally for another few months but he sees big problems in the second half of 2013. He remains bullish on gold even though he thinks that the price could sag to under $1500.  

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Druckenmiller Sees the Upcoming Funding Crisis

February 25, 2013

Stan Druckenmiller, the man who used to manage George Soros’ portfolio sees the upcoming funding crisis in the United States. He was recently interviewed by CNBC where he expressed deep concern about the ever growing deficits.     It seems that almost every money manager who has a clue can see that the Fed’s policies […]

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Bullish Signals in Uranium Industry

February 14, 2013

Over the last three months there have been some bullish signals in the uranium industry. First of all, it is important to provide a little context for the recent M&A activity in uranium stocks. In 2007 there was a huge price spike that took the spot price of uranium from about $18/pound to almost $140/pound. […]

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Fleckenstein Sees the End of the Deflationary Fear Trade

February 8, 2013

Noted short seller Bill Fleckenstein made a rare appearance on CNBC yesterday. Fleckenstein highlighted his concerns of an upcoming funding crisis where the “stock market would get clubbed.” However, he did not know whether the funding crisis was imminent. Fleckenstein also sees an end to the deflationary fear trade. He now thinks that inflationary expectations […]

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Fred Hickey’s Stock Picks For 2013

February 2, 2013

The editor of the Hi-Tech Strategist, Fred Hickey, made his stock picks in Barrons today. Hickey really hasn’t changed his tune in the last two years. He still doesn’t see an end to the tech bear market and he’s weary of moneyprinting and has subsequently shuffled a huge portion of his assets into gold. First […]

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