Stan Druckenmiller is Bearish On the Markets

by admin on September 11, 2013

Stan Druckenmiller gave a rare interview today where he discussed entitlements, the new Fed Chairman and his overall investing strategy.

If you want to skip the entitlement issue fast forward to the 15 minute mark of the video below.

It seems that Druckenmiller is cautious about the overall investing environment. He said he has “the smallest positions” that he can remember.

Druckenmiller also believes that the next Fed Chairman is a “big deal” since the markets are being “artificially subsidized by money printing.” Thus, if a more a hawkish Fed chairman is appointed it could have huge implications for all asset prices. If the Fed is in fact going to exit QE, it is clear that it is not going to be an easy transition as the market turmoil in June showed.

He also talked about how most hedge fund managers do not deserve 2&20 as there are far too many hedge fund managers that cannot achieve the outsized returns of years passed.

Druckenmiller said that he is still long some Japanese equities, short some yen and is no longer as bearish on the Aussie dollar. However, he does not have any huge positions as he feels that there is too much uncertainty to make a big bet.

Chanos Now Short Caterpillar

by admin on July 17, 2013

Jim Chanos revealed at the Delivering Alpha conference that he is now short Caterpillar (CAT).

Chanos feels that Caterpillar will suffer due to it’s heavy exposure to the mining industry. Bulls expect that the cap x will only decline by 10% to 15% per year but Chanos feel that cap x could go back to 2005 levels which would be a fifth of what is currently spent.

Chanos also feels that Caterpillar is a derivative position against the slowdown in Chinese construction. As China consumes less commodities, fewer commodities will be mined and that will cause revenue deceleration at Caterpillar.

Chanos noted that:

  • 30% of its revenues tied to global mining capital expenditures
  • 50% of its operating profit tied to global mining capital expenditures

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